California Congressional District Maps 2023-32
By Twotwofourtysix - Own work, CC BY 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=119316587
This is a magnificent map. Thank you Twotwofourtysix!
It seems that predictions of a massive red wave in November were somewhat premature as Democratic overperformance in recent congressional special elections has shown. Will it be a positive year for team blue? Dunno to be honest. Will the post Dobbs rage and enthusiasm to get out and vote continue? Dunno either nor can we predict what the popularity of President Biden will do or what direction the generic congressional ballot will move either.
But with all of that in mind it is well worth our time to have a bit of a look at all 11 GOP districts in California to answer the question — are any likely to flip or at least be competitive?
Let’s start with the districts that are unlikely to be competitive, ranked from least to most.
CA-20
Predecessor District — CA-23
PVI - R+16
2022 House Primary Result: McCarthy (R) 61.3%, Wood (D) 24.0%, Dewell (D) 6.3%, Davis (R) 4.6%, Macauley (R) 3.9% - Wood won 0/4 Counties in the District.
Voter Reg as at 23/05/22: R - 46.54%, D - 26.88%
2020 Pres - Biden 36.4%, Trump 61.3%
There is absolutely no reason to think that this one will be competitive. McCarthy won a clear majority in the open primary, the voter registration gap is almost 20%, there is a 25% gap in the presidential vote and a PVI of R+16 means that this one can only be called one thing — Ruby Red
CA-01
Predecessor District — CA-01
PVI - R+12
2022 House Primary Result: LaMalfa (R) 57.1%, Steiner (D) 32.8%, Geist (R) 6.7%, Yee (NPP) 3.4% - Steiner won 0/10 Counties in the District.
Voter Reg as at 23/05/22: R - 42.58%, D - 28.55%
2020 Pres - Biden 39.2%, Trump 58.3%
Like CA-20 above CA-01 has the same fundamentals, only on a slightly less one sided basis. Based on a part of Northern California that just does not routinely elect Democrats. This one is not going Blue any time soon.
CA-48
Predecessor District — CA-50
PVI - R+9
2022 House Primary Result: Issa (R) 61.5%, Houlahan (D) 27.8%, Rascon (D) 9.1%, Jahn (NPP) 1.6% - Houlahan won 0/2 Counties in the District.
Voter Reg as at 23/05/22: R - 40.83%, D - 29.60%
2020 Pres - Biden 42.7%, Trump 55.0%
All of those Republican voters in Southern California had to be put somewhere. CA-48 is that somewhere. Not quite as Ruby Red as the first two but pretty daunting nonetheless. Houlahan had all of $11,394 cash on hand at the end of June which doesn’t even remotely fill us with any confidence.
CA-05
Predecessor District — CA-04
PVI - R+9
2022 House Primary Result: McClintock (R) 45.5%, Barkley (D) 33.6%, Magsig (R) 13.2%, Wozniak (NPP) 3.2, Main (R) 3.1%, Obert (R) 1.5% - Barkley won 0/8 Counties in the District.
Voter Reg as at 23/05/22: R - 42.09%, D - 31.71%
2020 Pres - Biden 42.7%, Trump 55.0%
Back up to Northern California for the 5th, which has remarkably similar stats to the 48th above. Except McClintock couldn’t even get a majority in the open primary but don’t get too excited — the 4 Republican candidates got 63.5% combined. Oh and Barkleys’ campaign committee was in the red as of the end of June. *sigh*
Next we take a look at 3 districts that may be competitive if Team Blue is having a very good night, again from least to most likely.
CA-23
Predecessor District — CA-08
PVI - R+8
2022 House Primary Result: Obernolte (R) 60.9%, Marshall (D) 21.8%, Gomez (D) 17.3% - Marshall won 0/3 Counties in the District.
Voter Reg as at 23/05/22: R - 36.51%, D - 33.61%
2020 Pres - Biden 43.9%, Trump 53.7%
The 23rd is in some ways a bit intriguing. On one hand Obernolte romped the open primary in and Trump beat Biden by almost 10 points. However on the other hand the voter registration gap is only a whisker short of 3 points AND there are more registered Dems than Repubs in the Los Angeles part of this District albeit a tiny part of the district. Marshall obviously sees some potential having raised $651,529 as at the end of June. One to watch in future cycles me thinks.
CA-40
Predecessor District — CA-39
PVI - R+2
2022 House Primary Result: Mahmood (D) 40.9%, Kim (R) 34.7%, Raths (R) 23.2%, Tauras (R) 1.2% - Mahmood won 1/3 Counties in the District (but the combined R vote was higher).
Voter Reg as at 23/05/22: R - 38.15%, D - 33.28%
2020 Pres - Biden 49.9%, Trump 58.3%
40.9% in the open primary vs a combines Repub vote of 59.1% leaves a veritable mountain for Mahmood to climb, however as CA-39 it was represented by team blue from 2018-20. Both candidates have fundraised heaps but the 8.4% Trump margin makes it less likely to be competitive than some would assume.
CA-03
Predecessor District — CA-22
PVI - R+4
2022 House Primary Result: Kiley (R) 39.7%, K Jones (D) 38.7%, S Jones (R) 16.2%, Peterson (D) 5.4% - Jones won 5/10 Counties in the District.
Voter Reg as at 23/05/22: R — 38.23%, D - 33.19%
2020 Pres - Biden 47.9%, Trump 49.7%
The 3rd is similarly intriguing to the 23rd but for slightly different (and better) reasons. Let me list them. Trump only won by 1.8%, the voter registration gap is a tick over 5%, Kiley only won the open primary by 1% and K Jones actually won 5 of the 10 counties in this district. However the combined Republican vote was 55.9% (still not great) and the combined Republican vote was higher than the combined Democratic vote in 2 of the 5 counties that Jones won. Both Jones and Kiley had raised more than $1.75 million by the end of June. Watch this one on election night. My tip as a potential dark horse.
We now finish with the districts that by all rights should be competitive on election night, again from least to most likely.
CA-41
Predecessor District — CA-42
PVI - R+3
2022 House Primary Result: Calvert (R) 48.2%, Rollins (D) 30.4%, Kurani (D) 15.6%, Lucio (R) 4.6%, Nevenic (NPP) 1.2% - Only 1 county — Riverside — in this district.
Voter Reg as at 23/05/22: R - 36.39%, D - 36.46% — 323 people! (This increased to 1,655 as at 22/08/22.)
2020 Pres - Biden 48.6%, Trump 49.7%
This one has snuck up out of nowhere courtesy of redistricting. 50/50 voter registration, 52R/46R open primary and the 2020 presidential results being a 1 point race and this one has all the hallmarks of a potential barn burner. What does give me pause for thought is the fact that Calvert, a congressman since 1993, has not been caught napping, unlike say Dana Rohrabacher in 2018. As at the end of June he has almost $1.4 million cash on hand. This is definitely one to watch on election night.
CA-45
Predecessor District — CA-48
PVI - D+2
2022 House Primary Result: Steel (R) 48.2%, Chen (D) 43.1%, Pham (R) 8.6% - Chen won 1/2 Counties in the District.
Voter Reg as at 23/05/22: R - 32.36%, D - 37.69%
2020 Pres - Biden 52.1%, Trump 46.0%
Despite the fact that the combined Republican vote in the open primary was 56.8% the stats here speak for themselves — Biden won by 6% and 5.33% voter reg gap in favour of Democrats in a pert of California that is quickly turning away from Republicans. And both Steel and Chen had more than $2 million cash on hand as at the end of June. One to definitely watch on election night.
CA-22
Predecessor District — CA-21
PVI - D+5
2022 House Primary Result: Salas (D) 45.2%, Valadao (R) 25.6%, Mathys (R) 23.4%, Medeiros (R) 16.6% - Salas won 4/4 Counties in the District (but the combined R vote was higher in 3).
Voter Reg as at 23/05/22: R - 26.01%, D - 43.25%
2020 Pres - Biden 55.3%, Trump 42.3%
The gaudy stats here have masked an uncomfortable truth. Democrats have always struggled to get out the base, particularly hispanics, during midterm elections in this part of California. So it is a simple equation — if Salas can turn out the Democratic base he wins walking away. Either way this one will be worth watching on the night but I would be more bullish if Salas COH was higher than the slightly anemic $690k he was on as at the end of June.
CA-27
Predecessor District — CA-25
PVI - D+4
2022 House Primary Result: Garcia (R) 47.1%, Smith (D) 37.4%, Quartey (D) 6.8%, Luevanos (D) 5.5%, Rudnick (R) 2.2%, Pierce (R) 1.1% - Only 1 county — Los Angeles — in this district.
Voter Reg as at 23/05/22: R - 29.52%, D - 41.49%
2020 Pres - Biden 55.1%, Trump 42.7%
Yup come hell or high water this one will be enthralling to watch on the night. Massive voter reg advantage to Democrats, a more or less 50/50 split in the open Primary between D’s and R’s AND a part of California where Democrats have turned out in midterm elections before. I am concerned that Smith only had $305K COH as at the end of June but I am confident that won’t be the case for the September quarter.
So there it is. Going to be an interesting House of Reps election in California.
Thoughts in the comments please?
